Tobacco companies warn about an increase in smuggling of cigarettes

On the 1st of May, 2009, the government of Ukraine increased an excise duty on tobacco products. A a result, in May-September, 2009, the production of cigarettes in Ukraine has decline by 21.5%. The decline can not be attributed to the current crisis because before the introduction of the new excise, the production declined by 8% only.
The MPs who introduced the excise see here a sign of declining cigarette consumption. However, the tobacco companies think otherwise. They claim that Ukrainian smokers has switched to consumption of Russian and Moldavian cigarettes which are smuggled to Ukraine. They claim to have evidence that during 8 months of 2009 the illegal import discovered by customs has increased by 2500%.
Sociologists are inclined to takes the side of MPs. They report that 1/3 of smokers has switched to cheaper brands and only 5-8% have started smoking imported brands.