Tarantino will win best picture, if history can be believed. - By Grady Hendrix - Slate Magazine

Tarantino will win best picture, if history can be believed. - By Grady Hendrix - Slate Magazine: "Want to win an Oscar for best picture? Easy. Just release an R-rated period musical about a dead military figure that's based on a book and make sure it runs for two hours and 10 minutes."

I have not seen Inglourious Basterds, but I would vote for Avatar. It is a revolutionary movie in many dimensions.  I am not sure about the best movie, but I bet Avatar will get the most Oscars in all nominations.