Is the crisis in Ukraine over? I do not think so

Ukrstat reports:

Industrial production in January-March 2010 grew 11%
but
Retail trade in January-March is 3% below the same period of 2009 and 17% below the level of 2008
and the really bad piece of statistics
Construction in January-March 2010 is 80% of the 2009 level and only 34% of the 2008 level

Therefore, I see that the externally oriented industries are moving towards the healthy recovery but internal demand and investments are still in very bad shape.

The credits in foreign currency are back

The parliament of Ukraine has voted on lifting the restrictions on loans in foreign currency (link in Russian). In addition, the MPs simplified the procedures that are required for foreign investments in Ukraine.
It seems that nothing has been learnt from the crisis and more strict regulations of financial markets is not what on the table. To the contrary, the ruling coalition hopes to attract more foreign capital inflows. While it is good to overcome lack of financing of the current government deficit, it will create the situation similar to the one that led to the collapse of the economy in 2008.

Eurozone mess

Krugman explains the mechanics of current troubles in Spain. His point is that Spain would be off the hook if it had own currency. However, the example of Ukraine, which is similar in many ways, clearly demonstrates that own currency is not sufficient to fight the crisis. Ukrainian hryvna has devalued about 100% but it did not help to boost demand too much.

Ukrainian regions in free fall

Figure 1 Wages in January-February

Figure 2 Export - import in January 2009

Mykolaiv looks like an outlier because its main activity is agriculture and the agriculture does not suffer that much.

Figure 3 Industrial production by regions