Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Martin Ford: How Will China Employ Its Factory Workers After the Robots Come Online?

Martin Ford: How Will China Employ Its Factory Workers After the Robots Come Online?:

The real problem China faces is that it is late to the party. Just as it reaches its manufacturing employment zenith, it faces a potentially disruptive impact from automation technology. And that will happen roughly in parallel with similar transitions in the service sectors of the countries that currently consume much of its output.




'via Blog this'

Russia joined WTO today


On August 22, 2012 Russia became the 156th member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). 18 years of negotiations resulted in commitments of Russia to substantially liberalize trade in goods and services, which will be done gradually during the 2013-2020 transition period. After all commitments are implemented, most favoured nation (MFN) import tariffs will fall from 11.5 percent to 7.9 percent. Russia has also committed to improve market access to foreign providers of financial, business, and telecommunication services.
This development is an opportunity for Russia to open a new page in its trade relationships with other CIS countries, stop thinking in terms of trade wars with zero-sum game and start thinking in terms of cooperation where economic interests prevail over politics.

Monday, August 13, 2012

International Trade and Institutional Change: Medieval Venice's Response to Globalization

International Trade and Institutional Change: Medieval Venice's Response to Globalization:


Diego PugaDaniel Trefler

NBER Working Paper No. 18288
Issued in August 2012
NBER Program(s):   ITI 
International trade can have profound effects on domestic institutions. We examine this proposition in the context of medieval Venice circa 800-1350. We show that (initially exogenous) increases in long-distance trade enriched a large group of merchants and these merchants used their new-found muscle to push for constraints on the executive i.e., for the end of a de facto hereditary Doge in 1032 and for the establishment of a parliament or Great Council in 1172. The merchants also pushed for remarkably modern innovations in contracting institutions (such as the colleganza) that facilitated large-scale mobilization of capital for risky long-distance trade. Over time, a group of extraordinarily rich merchants emerged and in the almost four decades following 1297 they used their resources to block political and economic competition. In particular, they made parliamentary participation hereditary and erected barriers to participation in the most lucrative aspects of long-distance trade. We document this 'oligarchization' using a unique database on the names of 8,103 parliamentarians and their families' use of the colleganza. In short, long-distance trade first encouraged and then discouraged institutional dynamism and these changes operated via the impacts of trade on the distribution of wealth and power.


'via Blog this'

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Why Has America’s Economic Recovery Stalled? - Project Syndicate

Why Has America’s Economic Recovery Stalled? - Project Syndicate: "The United States’ import bill now exceeds $2.4 trillion a year, more than twice that of China and greater than that of the 27 European Union countries combined"

The causes of slow recovery by Martin Feldstein

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Lost to Tax Loopholes

Google’s income shifting -- involving strategies known to lawyers as the “Double Irish” and the “Dutch Sandwich” -- helped reduce its overseas tax rate to 2.4 percent, the lowest of the top five U.S. technology companies by market capitalization

Monday, October 18, 2010

Hong Kong Losing to Shanghai Means Goodbye to Long Lunch - Bloomberg

Hong Kong Losing to Shanghai Means Goodbye to Long Lunch - Bloomberg: "Equities traders in Hong Kong may soon have to say goodbye to lunches of sauted ostrich and crispy pigeon at Michelin-starred restaurants and settle for a sandwich at their desks instead."

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

FT.com / Technology - Google to map inflation using web data

FT.com / Technology - Google to map inflation using web data: "Google is using its vast database of web shopping data to construct the ‘Google Price Index’ – a daily measure of inflation that could one day provide an alternative to official statistics."

It would be really cool if Google grants open access to the data for researchers.

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Ъ - НДС выводят начистоту // Общая задолженность по возмещению налога достигает 20 млрд грн

Ъ - НДС выводят начистоту // Общая задолженность по возмещению налога достигает 20 млрд грн: "Как выяснил Ъ, долг правительства по возмещению НДС намного превышает заявленные 3 млрд грн, просроченные свыше двух месяцев. Общая сумма НДС, подтвержденная проверками, на начало октября составляла 9,1 млрд грн, а проверяются еще 10 млрд грн."

Правительство стало в позу страуса.

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

balticbusinessnews.com - Ukraine PM invites investments, but has no time for S�rumaa

balticbusinessnews.com - Ukraine PM invites investments, but has no time for Soorumaa: "Mykola Azarov said during his recent visit to Tallinn that Ukraine needs $1 trillion to modernize...

He said that shipbuilding, the aviation industry and the energy sector particularly required investment

Azarov also noted that tax reform was being conducted in Ukraine, and proposed that Estonia invest in Ukraine.

One of Estonia's richest businessmen Urmas Sõõrumaa was disappointed yesterday when Azarov cancelled a breakfast meeting that had been planned for Wednesday. "We had planned to eat breakfast together tomorrow, but this meeting has been cancelled. "

Really unprofessional. I wonder how this 1trln dollar number was taken by Estonians.

Украина стала еще более непривлекательной для инвесторов - ЛІГА.Новости

Украина стала еще более непривлекательной для инвесторов - ЛІГА.Новости: "качественных изменений инвестиционного климата после президентских выборов в Украине не состоялось."

в третьем квартале индекс инвестиционной привлекательности страны снизился с 3,25 до 3,20 по пятибалльной шкале.

Инвесторы отмечают, что улучшилась ситуация с возмещением НДС, тем не менее и дальше ухудшается процесс упрощения таможенных процедур и техническое регулирование. Остальные показатели: реформирование судебной системы, земельная реформа, валютное регулирование - остались на протяжении квартала без изменений.

FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - How to fight the currency wars with stubborn China

FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - How to fight the currency wars with stubborn China: "Has the time for a currency war with China arrived? The answer looks increasingly to be yes."

Martin Wolf is going to war.

Ezra Klein - Infrastructure: The best deal in the economy

Ezra Klein - Infrastructure: The best deal in the economy: "Because of the recession, construction materials are cheap. So, too, is the labor. And your borrowing costs? They've never been lower."

Taking the advice from Klein, Ukraine should also build infrastructure by borrowing from abroad and domestically (this is what the government is doing). It is a gamble, of course, because unlike for US, long-term perspectives of Ukraine as a country and its long-term economic growth are unclear.

Finance for all? Banking structure reform may not be the way | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

Finance for all? Banking structure reform may not be the way by Beck and Brown, voxEU|

What really surprised me that in 2006 only 15 percent of Ukrainian households had a bank account. I think that the number is unrealistically low. In Azerbaijan , Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan less than 5 percent of households had a bank account in 2006.

Beck and Brown 2010














Thursday, September 30, 2010

From currency warfare to lasting peace | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

From currency warfare to lasting peace by Barry Eichengreen VoxEU

A piece of advise on what small emerging economies can do when the giants are fighting currency wars.


"A better solution would be to encourage the domestic demand for manufactures. Demand could be encouraged through, inter alia, tax credits for purchases of household appliances like those with which Japan has experimented. Married with some further appreciation of the currency, this would leave the demand for manufacturing products unchanged.
Better still would be to figure out exactly which manufacturing sectors are sources of learning-by-doing and technology spillovers. Not all manufacturing sectors, presumably, are. Only those which generate these favourable external effects for growth should be the recipients of preferential tax treatment."

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Impact of kindergarten on career

A new NBER paper have found that the early childhood development has a long-lasting effect on our careers.


How Does Your Kindergarten Classroom Affect Your Earnings? Evidence From Project STAR Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Nathaniel Hilger, Emmanuel Saez, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, and Danny Yagan, NBER Working Paper No. 16381



"First, kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27, college attendance, home ownership, and retirement savings. Second, students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college, attend a higher-ranked college, and perform better on a variety of other outcomes. Class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27, but this effect is imprecisely estimated. Third, students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings. Fourth, an analysis of variance reveals significant kindergarten class effects on earnings. Higher kindergarten class quality – as measured by classmates' end-of-class test scores – increases earnings, college attendance rates, and other outcomes. Finally, the effects of kindergarten class quality fade out on test scores in later grades but gains in non-cognitive measures persist. We conclude that early childhood education has substantial long-term impacts, potentially through non-cognitive channels."