Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Confusion about corruption perception index

During his campaign, V. Yanukovich constantly repeated the following punch line:

During the period since the Orange Revolution the ranking of Ukraine in the corruption perception index (CPI) changed from #83 to #146. Its one of the worst in the world with only African countries having lower rankings.

As constantly repeated by Transparency International (TI), CPI has a margin of error and any statement should contain a certain degree of probability.

There is some truth in this statement, but overall it is a false statement.
1. Ukraine was #83 out of 91 surveyed countries in 2001 with mean 2.1 (1 is the worst and 10 is the best)  margins from 1 to 4.1 which means that the "true" index of corruption in Ukraine is anywhere from 1 to 4.1 with 95% certainty, and there is still 5% chance that it is something else.

2. In 2009 Ukraine has #146 out of 180 surveyed countries with mean  2.2  and with 95% confidence interval 2.0-2.6. There are at least 34 other countries that have similar or lower CPI index including Russia which is not an African country. Moreover, looking at the margins of error one can only say that the level of corruption in Ukraine is significantly worse than in Mexico and Albania that are in the middle of the rankings.

One can easily see that the most accurate statement would be: nothing really changed in terms of corruption in Ukraine since 2001. It has been corrupt under president Kuchma and prime-minister Yanukovich, and it has been corrupt under president Yushchenko and prime-minister Timoshenko.

No comments: