Monday, November 16, 2009

Global trade imbalances are back


This is what worries me about US  trade deficit is growing again:


The illusion of improving global imbalances, voxEU.org, Richard Baldwin and  Daria Taglioni

...projections of improving imbalances are almost surely wrong. The rapid collapse of trade between the third quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 improved most balances of trade. It could not have done otherwise; if both imports and exports drop rapidly, the gap between them drops equally rapidly. In the same mechanistic manner, the recovery of trade flows – a recovery that seems to have started this summer – will almost surely return the US, Germany, China and others to their old paths.



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